The regulatory tide is turning, and some models are now firmly in focus.

Prediction markets are edging toward a major legal clash in the US, the UK is closing in on its position, and sweepstakes operators are facing accelerating pushback at state level. At the same time, enforcement is ramping up globally and emerging markets are becoming more unpredictable.

Let’s dive into this week’s Regulation Roundup!

Prediction Markets

• Ninth Circuit panel appears to lean Nevada's way in consolidated prediction markets appeal.
  
  On April 16, the US Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals heard oral arguments in Nevada's consolidated cases against Kalshi, Crypto.com and Robinhood, with the panel pressing the platforms on whether sports event contracts are swaps under exclusive CFTC jurisdiction or gaming subject to state law. A ruling for Nevada would deepen the split with the Third Circuit's recent decision in favour of Kalshi and likely push the issue toward the Supreme Court. The outcome will shape prediction market regulation across a region that includes some of the most commercially significant US gaming jurisdictions.

• UK regulatory picture sharpens as Betfair trials prediction markets product.
  
  An April 20 analysis highlighted that UK operators are watching the US litigation closely as the UK Gambling Commission has signalled prediction markets would fall within gambling regulation. Betfair is trialling a new Betfair Predicts product built on its existing exchange infrastructure, while Gambling Act reforms moving through Westminster could either bring prediction markets within the UK regulatory perimeter or explicitly exclude them. The decision will shape the UK competitive landscape for years to come.

Sweepstakes

• Louisiana House passes dual-currency sweepstakes ban 99-0 as racketeering bill advances in Senate.
  
  On April 14, Louisiana's House unanimously passed HB 883, which outlaws dual-currency online games that simulate gambling and targets operators, platform providers, content suppliers, geolocation providers and affiliates, with penalties up to $40,000 and five years imprisonment. The same day, HB 53, which would add sweepstakes gaming to the state's RICO statute, cleared the Senate Judiciary C Committee. Both bills have momentum despite Governor Jeff Landry's 2025 veto of a similar ban.

• Maryland's 2026 session ends without passing sweepstakes ban.
  
  The Maryland General Assembly adjourned April 13 without passing either of two House-approved bills targeting sweepstakes casinos. HB 295 passed the House 105-24 and HB 1226 cleared 134-2, but neither cleared the Senate Budget and Taxation Committee, leaving operators free to continue in the state until the issue returns in 2027. The Social Gaming Leadership Alliance welcomed the outcome as a temporary reprieve amid mounting bans in states including Indiana and Maine earlier this year.

Enforcement and Compliance

• CJEU rules EU states can ban cross-border online gambling and allow player restitution claims.
  
  On April 16, the Court of Justice of the European Union ruled in Case C-440/23 that EU law does not prevent member states from prohibiting specific online gambling services even where operators hold a licence in another member state, and that national courts may treat contracts as void and allow players to recover losses. The case involved two Malta-licensed Lottoland operators offering virtual slots and lottery betting to German players, and the ruling deals a significant blow to Malta's long-standing freedom-of-services defence.

• Australia's ACMA probes former AFL players for promoting offshore casino Vegastars.
  
  The Australian Communications and Media Authority confirmed on April 19 that it is examining potential breaches by former Brisbane Lions players Mitch Robinson and Rhys Mathieson, who were promoting offshore operator Vegastars through a 5,000 Australian dollar giveaway campaign tied to fuel prices. Individuals promoting illegal gambling face civil penalties of up to 59,400 Australian dollars per contravention, and facilitators up to 2.475 million. The ACMA has blocked 1,564 illegal gambling and affiliate sites since November 2019.

• UK High Court rejects Richard Desmond's 1.3 billion pound National Lottery challenge.
  
  On April 17, Mrs Justice Joanna Smith dismissed in full claims brought by The New Lottery Company and Northern and Shell against the Gambling Commission over the award of the Fourth National Lottery Licence to Allwyn. The judgment found the licensing competition reached a lawful outcome and that none of the contested post-award modifications were substantial or contrary to procurement regulations. The Commission called the ruling an important judgment for the future of the National Lottery and Good Causes funding.

Emerging Markets

• Brazil's Lula prepares presidential decree to restrict online gambling.
  
  Reports on April 19 and 20 indicated President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is preparing a decree, expected to be issued in May, that would block participants in federal debt-relief programs from gambling platforms and restrict promotional activities. The move reflects growing political hostility to the newly opened Brazilian market and comes alongside a parallel Workers' Party bill, PL 1808/2026, which would repeal the Bets Law entirely and effectively criminalise the operation of digital betting platforms in Brazil.

• France's ANJ reports 3 percent gambling market growth in 2025, warns indicators are flashing red for 2026.
  
  The French regulator published its annual review on April 17, reporting gross gaming revenue of 14.1 billion euros in 2025, up 3 percent year on year. ANJ president Isabelle Falque-Pierrotin warned that 2026 indicators are flashing red amid new fiscal policies, the FIFA World Cup, and emerging forms of betting, and called for operators to strengthen player protection and for adjustments to the regulatory framework to reduce gambling intensity.

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