Pressure is building and prediction markets are firmly in the regulatory crosshairs.

From the US to Brazil and India, regulators are moving quickly to restrict or redefine event-based contracts, with political integrity and consumer protection front of mind. Lawmakers are tightening rules, expanding enforcement powers, and in some cases implementing outright bans, while others focus on strengthening compliance frameworks and oversight mechanisms.

Let’s dive into this week’s Regulation Roundup!

Prediction Markets

• US Senate unanimously passes resolution banning members from prediction market trading.
  
  On April 30, the Senate passed a resolution sponsored by Ohio Republican Bernie Moreno barring senators from trading on prediction markets, citing the need to rebuild public trust. Kalshi publicly supported the move, noting it already blocks members of Congress and enforces against insider trading. The resolution follows Kalshi’s April 22 suspension of a Senate candidate and two House candidates for trading on their own campaigns, and lands amid a wider federal debate over whether event contracts amount to gambling.

• Minnesota Senate passes felony bans on prediction markets and dual-currency sweepstakes casinos.
  
  On April 30, Minnesota lawmakers passed Senate File 4511 by a 56-10 vote, making the operation, promotion, or advertising of prediction markets a felony covering sports, elections, government conduct, and entertainment outcomes, with criminal provisions taking effect on August 1. A companion bill, Senate File 4474, targets dual-currency sweepstakes platforms and extends liability to payment processors, geolocation services, and media affiliates. The measures build on Attorney General Keith Ellison’s November 2025 cease and desist orders against 14 sweepstakes operators.

• Congressional Democrats urge CFTC to issue rule prohibiting event contracts on elections, war, and sports.
  
  A group of Democratic senators led by Jeff Merkley sent a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on April 30 asking the agency to use its rulemaking authority to address what they described as the rapid erosion of integrity in prediction markets. The letter specifically calls for prohibiting contracts tied to elections, military action, and sporting events, arguing such products fall outside the intent of the Commodity Exchange Act. The CFTC issued a public call for comment on event contract rulemaking in March.

Enforcement and Compliance

• New York Governor Hochul commissions decade-long gambling behaviour study and bars state employees from prediction market insider trading.
  
  On April 30, Governor Kathy Hochul announced a ten-year study of gambling behaviours in the largest US online sports betting market, framed as a response to the rapid expansion of mobile wagering and prediction markets. The previous week, Hochul signed an Executive Order banning state employees from using insider information to trade on prediction markets, and the New York State Gaming Commission has issued draft rules covering AI-driven personalised promotions, biometric age verification, and at-risk player intervention triggers. State officials have separately warned that prediction markets are masquerading as financial products without state regulatory oversight.

• Brazil’s CMN Resolution 5,298 takes effect, banning derivatives on non-economic events and clearing space for B3 alternatives.
  
  Conselho Monetário Nacional Resolution 5,298, published April 24, came into force on May 4, formally prohibiting derivatives tied to sports, political, electoral, and entertainment outcomes, with the CVM delegated supervisory powers. Just three days before the effective date, B3, Brazil’s main exchange, launched six Event Contracts including Bitcoin-linked instruments that fall within the carve-out for derivatives tied to economic and financial variables. Anatel has now blocked roughly 28 prediction market platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket, with authorities indicating further blocks will follow as new entrants emerge.

• Romania’s ONJN annual report details enforcement progress and self-exclusion modernisation.
  
  On April 29, Romania’s National Office for Gambling published its annual report covering April 2025 to April 2026, citing more than 60 takedown orders, over 300 blacklisted illegal gambling websites, around 11,000 inspections, and 70 criminal complaints under expanded powers granted by Law 141/2025. The regulator confirmed that self-exclusion coverage has grown from roughly 30,000 pending requests to about 54,000 enrolled individuals, and that a draft Emergency Ordinance proposing a unified national self-exclusion framework with mandatory cooling-off periods and stronger penalties remains before the Ministry of Finance. ONJN President Vlad-Cristian Soare said enforcement and self-exclusion modernisation will remain top priorities through the rest of the year.

Emerging Markets

• India’s Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Rules 2026 take effect, banning all real-money games nationwide.
  
  On May 1, the Indian government brought the Promotion and Regulation of Online Gaming Rules 2026 into force, operationalising the August 2025 PROG Act and imposing a complete ban on online money games regardless of whether they are based on chance, skill, or hybrid models. The framework formally recognises esports and online social games, sets up the Online Gaming Authority of India under the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, and requires payment institutions to block transactions linked to banned platforms. Operators face up to three years’ imprisonment and fines of up to one crore rupees, rising to five years for repeat offenders, with the Act also covering offshore platforms accessible to Indian users.

• Kenya proposes Gambling Control Regulations 2026 establishing risk-based licensing and offshore operator rules.
  
  Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku gazetted Kenya’s proposed Gambling Control Regulations 2026 in early May, introducing a risk-sensitive licensing framework covering casinos, betting firms, lotteries, totalisators, equipment suppliers, and software providers under the new Gambling Control Act 2025. Companion advertising regulations require prior approval for all gambling promotions and prohibit content that exaggerates winnings or normalises gambling as a financial solution, with specific protections for minors. A separate Foreign-Based Operators framework requires offshore companies targeting Kenyan users to obtain local authorisation, ahead of the June 2026 deadline for operators to align with the new compliance regime.

Tax and Legislative Changes

• Isle of Man passes Gambling Legislation (Amendment) Bill ahead of October Moneyval inspection.
  
  The Isle of Man’s Gambling Legislation (Amendment) Bill cleared the final stage of the island’s parliament during the week of April 28 and now awaits Royal Assent. The legislation expands the Gambling Supervision Commission’s enforcement powers, including the ability to enter premises without a warrant, seize evidence on suspicion of non-compliance, and pursue new offences for obstructing investigations. The reforms are timed ahead of an October 2026 Moneyval onsite inspection, with officials referencing the consequences faced by Malta and Gibraltar after earlier negative AML assessments and pointing to recent enforcement actions targeting operators with alleged links to Asian offshore markets.

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