Prediction markets sit at the centre of a rapidly escalating global regulatory clash.

In the US, the fight over jurisdiction is intensifying as federal and state authorities clash, pushing prediction markets closer to a Supreme Court moment. Globally, approaches are diverging, with some markets opening up while others enforce strict bans, alongside rising scrutiny on integrity and compliance. Broader regulatory pressure continues to build across sweepstakes, consumer protections, and key market reforms.

Let’s dive into this week’s Regulation Roundup!

Prediction Markets

• CFTC sues New York to block state enforcement against prediction markets.
  
  On April 24, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission filed suit against New York after Attorney General Letitia James brought civil enforcement actions earlier in the week against Coinbase and Gemini for allegedly operating unlicensed gambling businesses through their prediction market offerings. The CFTC argues that federal jurisdiction over swaps preempts state gambling laws, mirroring its complaints already pending against Illinois, Connecticut and Arizona. New York becomes the latest front in a multi-state battle that legal observers expect to reach the Supreme Court.

• Wisconsin sues Kalshi, Polymarket, Coinbase, Robinhood and Crypto.com over sports event contracts.
  
  On April 23, Wisconsin Attorney General Josh Kaul filed three parallel lawsuits in Dane County alleging the platforms operate unlicensed commercial gambling through sports event contracts that are indistinguishable from ordinary wagers under state law. The complaint cites Kalshi's own marketing describing itself as a sports betting platform and estimates the company derives roughly 90 percent of its fees from sports markets. The lawsuits land just weeks after Governor Tony Evers signed legislation legalising tribal online sports betting in the state.

• Gibraltar licenses ADI Predictstreet as Europe's first regulated prediction market operator.
  
  An April 24 analysis confirmed that the Gibraltar Gambling Commissioner has licensed ADI Predictstreet, widely regarded as the first formally approved prediction market operator in Europe. The platform is currently in beta and pursuing what it describes as a disciplined jurisdiction-by-jurisdiction expansion, with the 2026 FIFA World Cup as a key commercial milestone after securing official prediction market partner status with FIFA. The licensing decision contrasts with the harder line taken in France, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium and Italy, where major US platforms remain blocked, and positions Gibraltar alongside the UK as the only European jurisdictions with a regulated route to market.

Sweepstakes

• Tennessee becomes third state to ban dual-currency sweepstakes casinos in 2026.
  
  On April 24, the Tennessee House voted 69 to 17 to pass the conference committee version of SB 2136 and HB 1885, which outlaws virtual, dual and multi-currency online casino games and expands the Attorney General's investigative powers. Governor Bill Lee has since signed the legislation into law. Tennessee joins Indiana and Maine as the only states to enact bans this session, with Louisiana still moving two bills through its legislature. Attorney General Jonathan Skrmetti, who had previously issued cease and desist letters to nearly 40 sweepstakes operators, welcomed the new statutory framework.

Enforcement and Compliance

• Brazil blocks Kalshi, Polymarket and 26 other prediction market platforms.
  
  On April 24, Finance Minister Dario Durigan announced that Brazil had ordered nationwide blocks on roughly 28 prediction market platforms, with Anatel coordinating enforcement across more than 19,000 internet service providers. Both Polymarket and Kalshi were inaccessible in the country by Friday afternoon. The action makes Brazil the latest of more than 30 jurisdictions to block Polymarket and frames prediction markets as unregulated gambling that threatens household financial stability. Chief of Staff Miriam Belchior linked the move to broader concerns about consumer protection and household debt.

• US prosecutors charge Special Forces soldier with insider trading on Polymarket Maduro raid.
  
  Federal prosecutors in the Southern District of New York charged Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke on April 23 with three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, plus wire fraud and unlawful monetary transaction counts, for allegedly using classified information about the January operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to bet on Polymarket and pocket more than 400,000 dollars. Polymarket said it alerted the Department of Justice after determining that someone had traded on classified government information. The case is the most prominent insider trading enforcement against a prediction market trader to date.

• UK Gambling Commission chief Andrew Rhodes to step down on 30 April.
  
  The Gambling Commission confirmed on April 24 that Chief Executive Andrew Rhodes will leave the regulator at the end of the month to take up a new role to be announced in due course. Rhodes oversaw the implementation of the statutory levy, the LCCP reforms flowing from the 2023 Gambling Act White Paper, and the Commission's recent cooperation with Google to remove hundreds of thousands of unlicensed betting URLs. His departure comes the day before the Remote Gaming Duty rises from 21 percent to 40 percent on 1 May, a change widely expected to reshape the UK operator landscape.

Emerging Markets

• Sweden's blanket gambling credit ban takes effect 1 April with full enforcement now active.
  
  Sweden's prohibition on the use of any form of credit for gambling came into force on April 1 and entered active enforcement during the week. The rules close a long-standing loophole by banning credit cards, bank overdrafts, buy-now-pay-later products and loan-funded play across the entire licensed market. Spelinspektionen has gained expanded sanctioning powers including fines, suspensions and licence revocations, and operators must now distinguish debit from credit transactions in real time. The reform builds on findings that linked gambling to record household indebtedness in Sweden.

• Mauritius Gambling Regulatory Authority establishes Rules Committee ahead of 2026 racing season.
  
  On April 24, the Mauritius GRA announced it would create a dedicated Rules Committee to review and strengthen the country's Rules of Racing, with the 2026 season opening on April 25 at Champ de Mars Racecourse. The committee follows an April 17 high-level meeting between the Horse Racing Integrity Division and trainers covering owner access, weighing room restrictions and proposed rule amendments. Stronger oversight of race day operations is expected to support confidence in the wider regulated pari-mutuel betting market.

• Wisconsin signs tribal online sports betting into law, complicating prediction market dispute.
  
  Reports during the week confirmed that Governor Tony Evers signed legislation on April 10 legalising online sports betting in Wisconsin under tribal compacts, and the Oneida Nation publicly backed the state's parallel lawsuits against prediction market platforms. The combination tees up a direct conflict between newly licensed tribal operators and federally regulated event contract platforms in a state that previously offered only retail wagering. The launch timeline for licensed online sportsbooks remains undefined as compact negotiations continue.

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