Prediction markets are no longer a niche regulatory concern, they are now at the centre of a global battle over sports betting authority, market integrity, and enforcement power.

This week saw mounting pressure in Washington as Senator Adam Schiff intensified attacks on CFTC-regulated sports event contracts, major US gaming and tribal bodies jointly urged Congress to intervene, and the Senate prepared for its first dedicated prediction markets hearing. At the same time, regulators worldwide continued escalating enforcement efforts, from Brazil’s aggressive blocking campaign to the UK’s newly formalised Illegal Gambling Taskforce, while emerging markets and governments pushed ahead with major structural reforms, funding initiatives, and casino legislation that could reshape the next phase of regulated gaming growth.

Let’s dive into this week’s Regulation Roundup!

Prediction Markets

• Senator Schiff accuses CFTC chair of duplicity at Brookings, pushes bipartisan ban on sports event contracts.
  
  Speaking at a Brookings Institution event on May 12 and in follow-up coverage on May 13, Senator Adam Schiff said CFTC Chair Mike Selig had reneged on a commitment to allow courts to resolve federal-state jurisdiction disputes over event contracts, calling Kalshi's sports markets indistinguishable from sports betting. Schiff used the platform to elevate the Schiff-Curtis bill, which would bar CFTC-registered platforms from listing sports and casino-style event contracts while preserving legitimate commodity hedging. The bill is backed by a coalition of nearly all state attorneys general and is the highest-profile congressional effort to date to return sports betting authority to states and tribes.

• AGA and Indian Gaming Association send joint letter urging Congress to block prediction markets from offering sports betting.
  
  On May 15, the American Gaming Association and Indian Gaming Association sent a joint letter to congressional leaders arguing that sports event contracts on CFTC-regulated platforms are operating as nationwide sports betting without the licensing, consumer protections, integrity safeguards or tax contributions required of state and tribal operators. The trade groups asked Congress to act before the CFTC's self-certification regime entrenches further, citing accelerating growth in sports volume on Kalshi and Polymarket. AGA disclosures show the association spent 730,000 dollars lobbying on prediction markets in Q1 2026 alone, its heaviest single quarter on the issue.

• Senate Commerce subcommittee sets May 20 prediction markets hearing as CFTC opens talks with every major US sports league.
  
  The Senate Commerce Subcommittee on Consumer Protection, Technology, and Data Privacy confirmed during the week that it will convene its No Sure Bets hearing on May 20, the first Senate session dedicated to the rapid growth of prediction markets and sports integrity. Former Congressman Patrick McHenry will testify for the Coalition for Prediction Markets alongside the AGA, state regulators and integrity specialists. CFTC Chair Selig confirmed at a separate FINRA event on May 12 that the agency is in active talks with every major US professional sports league to expand insider trading oversight, building on the March MOU signed with Major League Baseball.
  

Enforcement and Compliance

• Brazil's Anatel accelerates court-ordered blocks of illegal betting and piracy sites as Ministry of Finance pushes further crackdown.
  
  On May 13, Brazilian telecom regulator Anatel reported a sharp jump in court-ordered suspensions of IPs and URLs tied to unauthorised betting and piracy, with notifications to internet service providers up roughly 725 percent on 2022 levels. The Ministry of Finance separately forwarded a new list of 28 platforms accused of offering event contracts without local authorisation, all already blocked at the network level. Authorities are now waiting on the May 25 deadline for the Central Bank to publish the operational norms that will govern how banks and fintechs execute account freezes under the Anti-Faction Law.

• UK DCMS unveils Illegal Gambling Taskforce membership and biannual meeting cadence as Treasury-funded enforcement programme ramps up.
  
  The Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport disclosed on May 13 that its new Illegal Gambling Taskforce will meet twice a year and be chaired by the minister responsible for gambling, with the Gambling Commission, payment providers, tech platforms and industry experts among the participants. The group will not publicly name individual members but will set priorities for the 26 million pound Treasury enforcement package and the Commission's recently advertised Head of Illegal Markets role. The taskforce launches against a market estimate that UK black-market betting has surged to roughly 16.6 billion pounds.

• Former Texas Lottery Commission director re-indicted by Travis County grand jury over US$95 million jackpot scandal.
  
  On May 14, a Travis County grand jury re-indicted Gary Grief, the former executive director of the now-dissolved Texas Lottery Commission, on a first-degree felony abuse-of-office charge tied to the 2023 Lotto Texas drawing in which an international syndicate bought nearly every possible ticket combination to win a 95 million dollar jackpot. The Commission itself was named in a parallel indictment over alleged fraudulent use of government property and services. The case ended a brief dismissal of the earlier indictment last month and intensifies scrutiny of state lottery oversight ahead of further legislative review.

Emerging Markets

• Thailand's entertainment complex bill revival gains momentum after coalition framework agreement on 17 percent GGR tax and three-resort cap.
  
  Coalition partners in Bangkok reached a framework agreement during the week on the long-stalled Entertainment Complex Bill, settling on a gross gaming revenue tax of 17 percent for the initial licensing period, well below the 30 percent rate that had been seen as commercially unviable. The deal authorises up to three integrated resorts with licensed casino floors and layers in player protections including a national exclusion registry, income-based visit limits, and a 1 percent gross revenue contribution to responsible gambling programmes. Backers expect the bill to reach parliamentary debate in Q3 2026, though religious and Senate opposition remain meaningful obstacles.

• GCI report estimates unregulated online gambling at US$5.9 trillion, calling it the world's third-largest economy.
  
  A report from Gaming Compliance International circulated between May 14 and 19 pegged unregulated online gambling at 5.9 trillion dollars in 2025 wagering value, larger than every economy except those of the United States and China. GCI estimates that unlicensed operators and so-called unacknowledged gambling, including prediction markets and sweepstakes products, now account for 78 percent of global online gross gaming revenue, leaving licensed operators with just 22 percent. CEO Matt Holt called it a White Noise Marketplace in which regulated and offshore products sit side by side with little visible distinction for users.

Tax and Legislative Changes

• Australia's 2026-27 federal budget commits A$112.7 million over five years to gambling harm reduction, with A$28.7 million earmarked for BetStop.
  
  Treasurer Jim Chalmers handed down the 2026-27 budget on May 12, with gambling-harm coverage cementing during the week including a five-year, 112.7 million Australian dollar Addressing Online Gambling Harms package. BetStop, the national self-exclusion register, receives 28.7 million dollars over four years plus 3.2 million ongoing annually, while financial counselling gets 39 million dollars and advertising and offshore enforcement an additional 22.6 million. Partial funding will come from a higher levy on licensed operators that connect to BetStop, with the broader advertising restrictions slated to begin from 1 January 2027.

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