Regulators intensified their crackdown on grey-market gambling this week, with prediction markets becoming one of the industry’s biggest global flashpoints.

The AGA labelled event contracts a major threat to regulated gaming, New York launched a public campaign warning consumers against prediction markets and offshore operators, and US authorities reportedly began examining insider-style trading concerns tied to political betting activity on Kalshi and Polymarket. Across the wider market, regulators also ramped up enforcement efforts targeting self-exclusion failures, offshore supplier activity, illegal gambling advertising, and unlicensed operators, while jurisdictions including Brazil, Sweden, Singapore and the Philippines introduced tighter compliance and licensing measures.

Let’s dive into this week’s Regulation Roundup!

Prediction Markets

• AGA names prediction markets a very significant threat to commercial gaming in 2026 industry outlook.
  
  The American Gaming Association's latest State of the States outlook, released May 11, reports that 81 percent of surveyed gaming executives view prediction markets as a very significant threat to the legal, state and tribally regulated industry. AGA CEO Bill Miller framed sports event contracts as illegal sports betting in all but name and committed the association to pushing back through Congress, the courts and state legislatures. The report also acknowledged the industry split that has seen DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics and bet365 exit the AGA over its hardline stance.

• New York Gaming Commission launches Risky Bets campaign warning consumers off prediction markets, sweepstakes and offshore sites.
  
  Acting at the direction of Governor Kathy Hochul, the New York State Gaming Commission launched its Unlawful Gambling equals Risky Bets initiative on May 11, urging residents to avoid prediction market platforms, sweepstakes casinos and offshore operators. The campaign pairs consumer education with a clear list of authorised products, including licensed mobile sports betting, advance deposit wagering on horse racing, online raffles, daily fantasy and lottery couriers. It is the most public state-level move yet to brand event contracts as unlawful gambling rather than financial products.

• NPR investigation finds US campaign staffers routinely trading prediction markets on internal polling.
  
  
  Reporting published on May 7 detailed how operatives working on federal and statewide races have placed thousands of dollars in wagers on their own candidates through Kalshi and Polymarket, often acting on internal polling and field data before it becomes public. Federal prosecutors and the CFTC are reportedly examining whether such activity violates insider trading rules under the Commodity Exchange Act. The disclosures intensify pressure on platforms that have already suspended three congressional candidates and revised their rulebooks against duty-based trading.

Enforcement and Compliance

• Australia's ACMA accepts 18-month court-enforceable undertaking from Entain over 500 plus BetStop self-exclusion breaches.
  
  On May 6, the Australian Communications and Media Authority announced that Entain Group, parent of Ladbrokes AU and Neds AU, had agreed to a comprehensive court-enforceable undertaking after investigators found more than 500 breaches of the BetStop national self-exclusion rules across both brands. Failures included opening accounts for registered self-excluded customers, failing to close existing accounts, and inadequate BetStop promotion in marketing communications. Civil penalties of up to A$59,400 per breach were not pursued because the statute of limitations had expired, but Entain must now submit to an independent compliance review.

• Ontario's AGCO fines Relax Gaming and Arrise Solutions C$40,000 each for supplying unregulated sites.
  
  The Alcohol and Gaming Commission of Ontario served Orders of Monetary Penalty against the two registered B2B suppliers on May 7, after investigators found their games available on offshore gambling sites accessible to Ontario players. The AGCO bars registered suppliers from offering their products to unregulated sites and used the action to put the wider supplier community on notice. Both companies cooperated with the probe and restricted access to their content, but the case marks the most significant supplier-side enforcement since the regulated Ontario market opened.

• Netherlands KSA submits more than 4,600 reports against Meta to take down illegal gambling ads on Facebook and Instagram.
  
  Dutch regulator Kansspelautoriteit confirmed on May 7 that it had filed over 4,600 individual takedown reports targeting illegal gambling promotions on Meta platforms, framing social media marketing by unlicensed operators as a top 2026 supervisory priority. The KSA placed the action alongside its under-24 protection work, duty of care reviews of licensed operators and Wwft anti money laundering enforcement. The escalation is the first large-scale execution of the regulator's new infrastructure-focused enforcement model.

Emerging Markets

• Philippines PAGCOR caps e-gaming cashback and rebate programs, with non-compliant promotions ending May 15.
  
  Acting under its new regulatory framework, the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation issued rules on May 7 capping cashback and rebate incentives for electronic gaming operators and tightening prior approval requirements for any promotional structure. Previously authorised but non-compliant cashback or rebate programs must cease by May 15, with no extensions or renewals during the transition period. The move reinforces PAGCOR's pivot from operator to pure regulator and follows recent restrictions on advertising and KYC requirements for licensed e-gaming.

• Indonesian police arrest 321 foreigners in one of the country's largest online gambling raids.
  
  Jakarta police announced on May 11 the arrest of 321 foreign nationals, predominantly Vietnamese, at a commercial building near the city's Chinatown that investigators identified as the hub for more than seventy online gambling sites targeting players outside Indonesia. Those charged could face up to nine years in prison and roughly US$116,000 in fines under Indonesian criminal and immigration law. The bust is among the largest enforcement actions since Jakarta's nationwide ban on offshore operators and the central bank's 2025 suspension of in-app gambling payments.

• Apple updates App Store rules in Brazil to require SPA-licensed status for fixed-odds betting apps.
  
  Apple confirmed on May 11 that fixed-odds betting applications distributed through its Brazilian App Store must now be operated by a company holding a valid licence from the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting of the Ministry of Finance, with the policy change effective May 8. Applications classified as gambling must carry an 18-plus rating and meet Brazilian disclosure rules, including risk warnings. The shift aligns Apple's store policies with Brazil's regulated betting framework and follows the May 4 ban on non-financial prediction market 

Tax and Legislative Changes

• Sweden's Spelinspektionen rolls out first compliance directive under nationwide credit ban as Q2 audits begin.
  
  On May 6 the Swedish gambling authority published its first formal directive enforcing the credit ban that took effect on May 1, requiring all licensees to demonstrate real time controls that separate debit and credit funded deposits. Q2 audits are now under way, with operators warned that source-of-funds failures on higher-value deposits could trigger fines starting at SEK 1 million and risk licence conditions. The directive follows the government's confirmation that Peter Knutsson will take over as Director General in August.

• FATF upgrades Singapore to regular follow-up status, praising stringent casino AML supervision.
  
  In a mutual evaluation report published on May 6, the Financial Action Task Force moved Singapore from enhanced to regular follow-up status, the highest monitoring tier, citing the Gambling Regulatory Authority's high-level understanding of money laundering risk and stringent supervision of the country's two integrated resort casinos. Reviewers flagged residual gaps around proportionate penalties and cross-border information sharing, but found that the operators maintain robust customer due diligence commensurate with the sector's risk profile. The upgrade cements Singapore's position as one of the most tightly supervised regulated gaming jurisdictions in Asia.

• UK Gambling Commission begins post-Rhodes era with new acting CEO and flagship illegal markets hire.
  
  Deputy Chief Executive Sarah Gardner began her term as Acting Chief Executive at the start of May and addressed the Bingo Association AGM on May 7, balancing a partnership message with stricter compliance expectations as the new 40 percent Remote Gaming Duty rate beds in. The Commission published a vacancy on May 8 for a Head of Illegal Markets at sixty five thousand pounds per year, drawing immediate industry criticism that the salary does not match the role's national scope. The hire is meant to anchor the twenty six million pound illegal gambling enforcement programme funded by HM Treasury.

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